Every week millions of football bettors search for winning bets that will bring them a profit; at the same time millions of fantasy football managers are creating teams hoping to score big. Whilst these two different groups of people have different motivations, the details they are looking into and the processes they follow are remarkably similar. The trick, is to figure out what tactics and techniques you can transfer from one to bring you success in the other.
I find it impossible to believe that anyone can place a bet without some form of emotional attachment to it. From pensioners choosing a horse with a name they like in the grand national, to the seasoned punter betting £1000s on short priced favourites – we are all emotionally linked because unless we’re billionaires, we’re attached to the money. This regularly colours our view of what we should bet on causing us to dream bigger or risk less. However, fantasy football managers play for pride not profit, so their thought process is less emotionally driven. Why don’t you start your thought process for which bets to choose by:
• Reading Fantasy Football forums to get a consensus of which teams are likely to be successful;
• Reading the professional articles written on websites like Rotoworld.com, Never Manage Alone and Fantasy Football Scout;
• Reading ‘Player Picks’ articles to get ideas for the most successful first goal-scorer markets;
• Following Rotoworld’s transfer page to get a great idea of who could be signed up and ready to impact your next bet;
• Checking out @Bendinnery on Twitter for the ultimate detail on injuries and suspensions that can affect your bets.
If on the other hand you’re a fantasy football manager, the bookmaker’s odds give you ready made probabilities for all sorts of insights into your game. For example;
• Most Fantasy Football games give points to goalkeepers for winning and keeping a clean sheet. There is a betting market entitled ‘To win to nil’ which you can use to work out exactly who is most likely to achieve this;
• Want to know which Man Utd midfielder is most likely to score? Check out the ‘to score at any time’ market to get the bookies (who are risking their own money) thoughts;
• Check out online betting forecast websites such as olbg.com to see what punters are suggesting are the most likely outcomes;
• Look at the odds available for ‘correct score’ markets. This will point you in the direction of the most goals for your attackers, and least conceded for your defenders;
• Look at the goal handicap market. Any team that holds odds of 4 or less with a -2 prediction is worthy of heavy investment;
• For a quick way of sorting the games into order look at the ‘Full time result and total goals’ market available from SkyBet? The shortest odds for a home team, with over 2.5 goals is the best; Games where ‘Draw and under 2.5 goals’ is the favourite should be avoided for Fantasy Football purposes;
• Look at the ‘Both teams to score’ market, in conjunction with the ‘to win to nil’ market to get an idea of how sound a strong teams defence should be;
• The ‘Player to be sent off market’ is a good place to look for which players are most likely to be a little too hot-headed and risk too many negative foul points.
These lists aren’t exhaustive and there are many more ways that both types of reader can benefit. Why not leave a comment and tell us how you use these different approaches.